Alright, let’s talk about how I went about figuring out some dark horse picks for the PGA Championship this time around. It’s always more interesting looking beyond the obvious favorites, you know? Finding someone unexpected who might make a run.
So, the first thing I did, really, was just sit down and think about what makes a ‘dark horse’ for this specific major. The PGA Championship field is always strong, so it’s not about picking complete unknowns. It’s about finding guys with potential who aren’t getting all the headlines.
Getting Started: The Info Grab
I started by grabbing the full list of players teeing it up. Then, I spent a good chunk of time just digging into recent form. Not just who won the last few tournaments, but who’s been consistently making cuts, grabbing top-25 finishes. Consistency is key, even if they haven’t lifted a trophy lately. I looked back maybe 6-8 weeks, checking leaderboards and stats from those events.
Then, I shifted focus to the course itself. Valhalla Golf Club. I tried to remember its characteristics from past majors or looked up what people were saying about it this year. Key things that jumped out:
- Length: It’s a big course. So, guys who can hit it long off the tee seemed like they’d have an advantage. I looked up driving distance stats.
- Approach Play: Like most majors, hitting greens and hitting it close is huge. So, I checked out Strokes Gained: Approach data.
- Putting?: Always matters, but sometimes less predictable. Still, looked at recent putting performance.
- Course History (if any): Did anyone play well here back in 2014? Sometimes that matters, sometimes it doesn’t, but worth a look.
Narrowing Down the Field
Okay, now I had a bunch of names and stats swimming around. The next step was filtering. I basically started crossing names off.
Who got cut?
- Players in really bad form (multiple missed cuts recently).
- Guys whose stats just didn’t seem to fit the course profile (short hitters, poor approach players).
- Players with historically bad major championship records, unless their recent form was absolutely stellar.
This process helped me whittle down the big list to a more manageable group of maybe 15-20 golfers who fit the ‘potential dark horse’ profile.
The Deeper Dive and Final Picks
With this shorter list, I dug a bit deeper into each player. Read some recent articles or analysis about their game. Watched some highlights if I could find them, just to get a feel for how they’re actually playing.
I looked for guys who seemed to be trending upwards. Maybe someone who had a great final round in their last start, showing a flash of form. Or someone who has performed well on similar style courses in the past.
It’s not super scientific at this point. Part of it is looking at the numbers, part of it is a bit of gut feeling. You see a name, check their odds, check their recent play, check the course fit, and think, “Yeah, I could see this guy surprising some people.”
After going through that process for the remaining names, I landed on a few specific players. These were the guys who seemed to have a good blend of current form, stats that fit the course, and weren’t necessarily the ones everyone else was talking about. Felt like they had a decent shot to outperform their expectations.
Wrapping It Up
So that’s pretty much how I did it. Started broad, gathered info, filtered based on form and course fit, then did a closer look at the potentials before settling on a few names. It takes a bit of time, digging through stats and results, but it’s a fun process. Of course, they’re called dark horses for a reason – no guarantees! But that’s the excitement. We’ll just have to watch and see how they do.
