Alright, decided to spend some time today digging into Boise State’s tournament chances. You know, doing a bit of my own bracketology for the Broncos. It’s always a fun puzzle, trying to see where they might land if they make the big dance.
First thing I did was just pull up their overall record. Need to start with the basics, right? See how many wins, how many losses. Then I started looking a bit deeper, not just the final scores but who they played against. Wins are great, but wins against tough teams? That’s what the selection committee really looks at, or so they say.
So, I spent a while checking their schedule results. I tried to sort the games in my head, like:
- Okay, these were the really good wins. The ones against teams likely going dancing too.
- These were… well, bad losses. Teams they really should have beaten. Every team has ’em, but too many can sink the ship.
- And then the rest, the expected wins and understandable losses against top dogs.
After getting a feel for their resume, I started looking at the metrics people talk about. Things like their NET ranking, strength of schedule… the numbers stuff. Honestly, sometimes my eyes glaze over with all the different computer rankings, but you gotta look. I jotted down their NET and compared it to where they were maybe a few weeks ago. Are they trending up or down? That seems important.
Then came the tricky part: comparing Boise State to other teams on the bubble. This is where it gets messy. Team A has more big wins, but Team B has fewer bad losses. Team C played a tougher schedule overall. I started scrolling through some general sports sites, just reading opinions, seeing what range other folks are putting the Broncos in. Are they solidly in? Are they one of the last teams in? First few out? It gives you a ballpark idea.
I tried to slot them into a seed line myself. Based on the wins, the metrics, and how they’ve looked recently (the ‘eye test’, I guess), I penciled them in around the… well, let’s just say somewhere in the middle-to-lower seeds for now. Maybe an 8? A 9? Possibly slipping into those play-in games? It really depends on how they finish the season and what other bubble teams do. Lots of moving parts.
It’s tough work, this bracketology stuff! You look at the same data points, and different people come up with different conclusions. For now, I’ve got my own little prediction noted down. We’ll see how it holds up as the last games play out and the conference tournaments wrap up. Always interesting to see how my guess compares to the real thing on Selection Sunday. Just gotta wait and watch.
