Okay, so, I’ve been really into baseball lately, and betting on home runs has become my new thing. Today, I really dug deep and wanted to share my whole process with you guys on how I picked my best home run bets for today.
Step 1: Started with the Basics
First off, I grabbed my laptop and started looking at who’s playing today. You gotta know the matchups, right? I checked out a bunch of different sportsbooks to see what the odds were looking like, but I always like the odds that the FanDuel Sportsbook gives. Also, I have been eyeing a few players who’ve been crushing it lately. Guys like Pete Alonso from the Mets, who’s already smashed 18 homers this season. He’s got a game today against the Washington Nationals, and I thought, “This could be his day.”
Step 2: Checked Out the Stats
So, I didn’t just stop at knowing who’s hot. I started looking up stats – lots of them. Like, who leads their team in home runs? For instance, Rafael Devers from the Red Sox is leading with 26, and he’s got a solid expected weighted on-base average of .379. That’s pretty good, and it tells me he’s not just lucky; he’s consistently good.
Step 3: Focused on Today’s Games
I narrowed down my list to three players who I think are really gonna shine tonight. I looked at their past performance, especially in similar game conditions. It’s not just about who’s good overall, but who’s good today, under today’s specific circumstances. You know, like, who they are facing and stuff like that.
Step 4: Made My Picks
- Pete Alonso (New York Mets): I’m betting on him because, well, 18 home runs don’t lie. Plus, he’s up against the Nationals, and something just tells me he’s gonna add to his tally.
- Rafael Devers (Boston Red Sox): This guy is a machine. Leading his team in both actual and expected home runs? Yeah, I’m putting my money on him hitting one out of the park.
- Rowdy Tellez (Milwaukee Brewers): He’s a lefty, which could be a big deal depending on who’s pitching against him. He’s leading Milwaukee in slugging, so I think he’s got a good shot.
Step 5: Placed My Bets
After all that, I actually placed my bets. It felt good to put my money where my mouth is, you know? It’s not just about picking the right guys; it’s also about feeling confident in your choices.
Step 6: Watched and Waited
Now, all that’s left is to watch the games and see what happens. There’s always that thrill of waiting to see if your picks pan out. It’s like, part of the fun is not knowing for sure and just hoping you nailed it.
So yeah, that’s my process for picking home run bets. It’s a mix of gut feeling and a whole lot of number crunching. Hopefully, I’ll have some good news to share after tonight’s games! Fingers crossed, guys!
